Netanyahu may stay in power for months after Israeli election
Jerusalem – With Israel holding its first national parliamentary election since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023, experts warn that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could remain in office for several months regardless of the outcome. Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, stated to Euronews that prolonged coalition negotiations are likely, during which time a caretaker administration would retain substantial powers, including the authority to authorize critical military actions. This scenario raises significant questions about who will make key security decisions amid heightened regional tensions, particularly concerning potential renewed hostilities against Iran.
The vote, occurring three years after the assaults that killed approximately 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken, serves as a referendum on Netanyahu’s tenure. Final opinion polls indicate that neither his governing coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is assured of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Mekelberg emphasized that no new government will be formed immediately after the election, noting that the resulting volatility and danger stem from the caretaker government’s retained capabilities. He suggested that political developments in both Israel and the United States, whose midterms occur on 3 November, could determine whether war with Iran resumes or ceases.
Mekelberg expressed suspicion regarding Netanyahu’s motivations, arguing that the prime minister’s policies are intertwined with his ongoing corruption trial and efforts to retain power. He posited that creating a crisis, including one involving Iran, is not beyond the realm of possibility for the current leadership. Conversely, an opposition-led government might reconsider Israel’s reliance on military force against Tehran and pursue different diplomatic avenues. Such a shift could also influence approaches to Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Lebanon, potentially involving closer cooperation with international efforts and negotiations on security arrangements.
However, deep divisions persist within the opposition regarding Palestinian statehood and the future of the occupation. Mekelberg cautioned that a two-state solution will not happen overnight and that meaningful change requires steps toward easing occupation conditions and creating a path to a negotiated settlement. The composition of any future coalition, including the involvement of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, remains uncertain.
Beyond foreign policy, the election has intensified scrutiny over the security failures preceding the 7 October attacks. Three years later, Israel has yet to establish an independent state commission of inquiry. The current government has resisted appointing members via the president of the Supreme Court, favoring an alternative mechanism criticized for lacking independence. Mekelberg noted that the demand for a state commission unites all opposition groups and many supporters of the coalition. He argued that rejecting an independent investigation fuels suspicions that the government has something to hide, undermining democratic accountability and failing to prevent similar future breaches of defense.
This report was produced in the Europe Brief News newsroom.
